Export “window” of Ukrainian barley to Turkey may close

The outlook for Ukrainian barley exports to Turkey, the second-largest market this season, could deteriorate sharply in the next marketing year as the country prepares for a much better domestic harvest.

The barley harvest in Turkey is expected in late May 2026. Market participants are forecasting production at around 8.5 million tonnes, about 3 million tonnes more than last year, when the harvest was weak. Although the harvest has not yet started, these expectations already signal a significant reduction in import demand.

This would be a sharp reversal compared to the current season. According to USDA, barley imports by Turkey in the 2025/26 MY are estimated at 1.5 million tons compared to only about 150 thousand tons in the 2024/25 MY, when the domestic harvest was larger — about 7 million tons. It was the weak harvest last year that opened up opportunities for imports and made Turkey one of the key markets for Ukrainian barley, analysts note.

In July-March 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 297 thousand tons of barley to Turkey compared to 64 thousand tons for the same period a year earlier and about 75 thousand tons for the entire 2024/25 season. Only China imported more Ukrainian barley during this period, while Turkey’s share in total exports increased to 21% compared to only 3% a year earlier.

However, in the future, this demand is likely to decrease. A larger domestic harvest is expected to reduce the need for imports, and local prices are already competitive.

“The local price is also quite attractive, as TMO is currently selling barley from its stocks at 12,000 Turkish liras per ton, equivalent to approximately $269/t,” said Salih Karagöz, a broker at Atria Brokers.

Against this backdrop, Ukrainian barley offers remain higher than Turkey’s domestic prices.

Tags: Ukraine, Turkey, export, barley, crop forecast