USDA finally releases November WASDE

Now that the government shutdown is over, we finally have the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The main takeaway from these estimates may be that wheat and corn prices are projected to remain below average. 

On the day of the WASDE release, the Chicago Board of Trade December corn contract (ZCZ25) price fell from $4.42 to $4.30, and the CBOT December wheat contract (KEZ25) price fell from $5.26 to $5.15. Prices recovered these losses the next trading day. 

This means the November WASDE report had little impact on corn and wheat prices (Table 1).

Changes in wheat supply and demand estimates contained in the November WASDE are reflected in the stock-to-use ratios. The STU ratio for all U.S. wheat increased from 41% in the September WASDE to 44% in November. In November 2024, the STU ratio was 41%. The 16-year (2009-10 through 2024-25) average STU ratio is 41%.

The hard red winter wheat STU ratio increased from 50% in the September WASDE to 55% in the November report. The STU ratio was 54% in November 2024. The 16-year average HRW wheat STU ratio is 50%.

Looking at the world wheat situation, the STU ratio increased from 32% in September to 33% in November. The November 2024 WASDE projected the world wheat STU ratio to be 32%. The 16-year world wheat STU ratio is 34%.

In the November WASDE, the USDA lowered the projected 2025-26 marketing year average annual U.S. wheat price from $5.10 in the September WASDE to $5. In the November 2024 WASDE, the projected 2024-25 average annual price was $5.60.  

The wheat STU ratios imply that wheat prices could move closer to the 16-year average price, which is $5.80 for Pond Creek, Okla., and $5.98 for the average annual U.S. wheat price.

There were only small changes in the September and November corn WASDE reports. U.S. corn production remained essentially unchanged, and use was lowered about 400 million bushels. World corn production fell by 100 million bushels, and use was increased by 200 million bushels. The result was a small change in ending stocks. 

There is also very little difference between the November 2024, September 2025 and November 2025 WASDE U.S. and world corn STU estimates.

The November 2025 U.S. corn STU estimate (13%) is above the 16-year average (11%). The world corn STU ratio (22%) is below the 16-year average (24%).

The Sept. 17, 2025, Pond Creek corn price was $3.91, and the Nov. 17, 2025, price was $3.96. On Nov. 17, 2024, the corn price in Pond Creek was $4.14. 

The September WASDE projected the 2025-26 corn marketing year average price to be $4. This price was lowered to $3.90 in the November WASDE, which may be compared with $4.14 in the November 2024 WASDE. The 16-year average price is $4.59.

This year’s November WASDE STU ratios for all U.S. wheat and for HRW wheat are above average. This implies below-average wheat prices. The world wheat STU ratio is below average and implies above-average wheat prices. However, the U.S. STU ratio trumps the world STU ratio, so wheat prices are projected to remain below average.

Corn, like wheat, has an above-average U.S. STU ratio and a below-average world STU ratio. As expected, corn prices are expected to remain below average.

In summary, the November wheat and corn WASDE reports had little impact on prices. Both wheat and corn prices are projected to remain below average.

Tags: Hard Red Winter-wheat, estimates, ratio, corn, prices, WASDE, wheat