USDA estimates lower-than-expected 2023/24 US soybean crop and stocks

The August report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 11th, has focused the market’s attention for the last few days. This is because the market expected that USDA would finally reduce the estimated average yield for US crops, given that their conditions are below those registered last year. And, USDA confirmed the market sentiment, cutting yields, production, and stocks. But while the cuts were larger than expected, Chicago showed little reaction. It is possible that this happened due to the feeling that, even with a smaller crop in the United States, the trend for recovery in South American production, particularly in Argentina, should place a greater soybean supply in the world in the 2023/24 season, which should weigh on the 2024 futures contracts.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to hit 4.205 bln bushels in 2023/24, equivalent to 114.44 mln tons. The number was below the market forecast, which was 4.240 bln bushels, or 115.4 mln tons. In the previous report, the forecast was 4.300 bln or 117.02 mln tons. Yields were indicated at 50.9 bushels per acre, against 52 bushels per acre indicated in the previous report.

Ending stocks are projected at 245 mln bushels or 6.67 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 261 mln or 7.1 mln tons. In July, the number was 300 mln or 8.16 mln tons. USDA maintained the crush forecast at 2.300 bln bushels (62.59 mln tons). Exports were cut from 1.850 bln bushels (50.35 mln tons) to 1.825 bln (49.67 mln tons).

For the 2022/23 season, USDA maintained its production estimate at 4.276 bln bushels or 116.37 mln tons. Ending stocks were estimated at 260 bln bushels – 7.08 mln tons. The market projected stocks of 250 bln or 6.8 mln.

With regard to the global picture, USDA projected the world soybean crop in 2023/24 at 402.79 mln tons. In July, the forecast was 405.31 mln. Closing stocks are being reduced from 120.98 to 119.4 mln tons. The market expected 120 mln tons.

USDA projected the US crop at 114.45 mln tons, as already mentioned.

The Brazilian output was projected at 163 mln tons. For Argentina, the forecast is for 48 mln tons. China should import 99 mln tons. There were no changes compared to the previous report.

For the 2022/23 season, USDA estimated a global crop of 369.74 mln tons. For the United States, the estimate is 116.38 mln tons. Brazil’s crop was projected at 156 mln, and Argentina’s at 25 mln tons.

Global stocks are estimated at 103.09 mln tons, while the market was betting on 102.8 mln tons.

Tags: forecast, yield, stocks, output, USDA, Market, Brazil, Argentina, estimate, soybean, US, Production, crop