USDA cuts Ukraine’s wheat and corn export forecasts by 3 mln tons

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecasts for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports in 2026/27 by a combined 3 mln tons in its November WASDE report. The wheat export forecast was cut by 1 mln tons to 11.5 mln tons, while corn exports were reduced by 2 mln tons to 20 mln tons. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat production forecast was raised from 26 mln to 26.5 mln tons, while corn output remained unchanged at 31.8 mln tons. Forecast wheat ending stocks were increased to 7.3 mln tons from 6.1 mln tons in October, while corn stocks were raised to 7.53 mln tons from 5.53 mln tons. The USDA noted that military risks in the Black Sea region continue to restrict wheat exports from Ukraine and russia despite efforts to use alternative ports and transportation routes.

The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2026/27 to 827.51 mln tons from 822.39 mln tons in October. Total global supply was increased by 6.4 mln tons to 1.1104 bln tons, while consumption was raised by 1.7 mln tons to 829.6 mln tons, mainly due to higher feed use in Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The global wheat export forecast was lowered to 208.66 mln tons, while ending stocks were raised to 280.82 mln tons. Argentina’s wheat production forecast was increased by 1.5 mln tons to 23 mln tons, with exports projected at 16.5 mln tons. Australia’s production estimate was raised to 32.5 mln tons, while exports were increased to 24.5 mln tons.

The USDA left Canada’s wheat production forecast unchanged at 36.5 mln tons and exports at 30.5 mln tons, while the corresponding estimates for the EU remained at 133 mln and 31 mln tons. Russia’s wheat production forecast was maintained at 88 mln tons, but its export forecast was reduced by 1 mln tons to 39 mln tons. US wheat production and exports were unchanged at 41.74 mln and 20.41 mln tons, respectively, while ending stocks were raised to 20.22 mln tons. The USDA also lowered its export forecast for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat due to weak sales, while white wheat shipments are increasing thanks to competitive prices in Asian markets. The season-average farm price for US wheat was reduced by $0.10 to $6.20 per bushel. For China, wheat production is forecast at 141 mln tons, imports at 6 mln tons and ending stocks at 119.2 mln tons.

The USDA lowered its forecast for global corn production in 2026/27 by 2.2 mln tons to 1.29155 bln tons. The global export forecast was reduced to 209.38 mln tons from 210.72 mln tons in October, while ending stocks were raised to 281.94 mln tons from 280.44 mln tons. The largest revision was made to US corn production, which was cut from 407.28 mln to 403.71 mln tons. The US export forecast was lowered to 83.19 mln tons from 83.82 mln tons, while ending stocks were reduced to 44.67 mln tons from 46.97 mln tons.

Meanwhile, the USDA raised its corn production forecast for Brazil by 2 mln tons to 141 mln tons, leaving exports unchanged at 43 mln tons. Argentina’s corn production estimate was increased to 57 mln tons, with exports projected at 40 mln tons. Russia’s corn production is forecast at 16.5 mln tons, while exports were reduced to 3.5 mln tons. South Africa’s corn production forecast was lowered from 16.5 mln to 15 mln tons, with exports unchanged at 2.2 mln tons. For China, the USDA maintained its corn production forecast at 307 mln tons and imports at 5 mln tons, while raising its ending stocks estimate to 166.95 mln tons from 165.13 mln tons in October.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, grain, grain export, USDA Report, wheat