USDA cuts India sugar production forecast by 4.1 mln tons
The USDA has lowered its forecast for India’s sugar production in the MY 2026/27 to 29.5 mln tons from the previously expected 33.6 mln tons due to a rainfall deficit and deteriorating sugarcane crop prospects, Reuters reported, citing a report by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA).
According to the agency, India’s sugarcane production is projected at 434 mln tons in 2026/27, down from 455 mln tons in the previous season. Insufficient rainfall in 2026 is expected to reduce sucrose content in sugarcane, lower the effective harvested area and decrease overall cane production.
Water shortages pose an additional risk to the sugar industry. According to the USDA, drought-like conditions could complicate sugar mill operations in early 2027, creating further risks for sugarcane processing.
India is one of the world’s largest sugar producers, so the downward revision to its production forecast could affect the global sugar balance. However, the report does not quantify the potential impact of lower production on world sugar prices.
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