USDA cuts global oilseed production forecast

In its November report, USDA lowered its forecast for global oilseed production in the MY 2026/27 by 0.3 mln tons from October to 721.9 mln tons. However, output is still expected to exceed the previous season’s 701.28 mln tons. The main reasons for the revision were weaker soybean crop prospects in Ukraine and other countries, as well as lower sunflower seed production expectations in Russia and Argentina. The decline is partly offset by higher soybean production in the United States and increased rapeseed output in Australia and Uruguay.

The global soybean production forecast was reduced by 0.2 mln tons to 442.5 mln tons, compared with 429.26 mln tons in 2025/26. USDA lowered its estimates for Ukraine, South Africa, the European Union and Mexico, while raising forecasts for the United States and Colombia. In particular, US soybean production was revised upward by 0.33 mln tons to 124.48 mln tons, supported by an increase in the yield estimate to 53.3 bushels per acre. US soybean exports are projected at 46.81 mln tons, compared with 46.13 mln tons in the October report, while ending stocks were lowered to 8.17 mln tons.

Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest soybean producer, with its 2026/27 crop forecast at 186 mln tons, compared with 180.5 mln tons in the previous season. Brazilian soybean exports could reach 118 mln tons. In Argentina, production is projected at 50 mln tons, while the export forecast was raised from 6.45 mln to 6.75 mln tons. Meanwhile, China is expected to remain the world’s largest soybean importer, with purchases forecast at 115 mln tons, compared with 113 mln tons last season. Domestic soybean crushing in China could increase to 111 mln tons, while EU soybean imports are projected at 13.7 mln tons and domestic production at 2.7 mln tons.

According to USDA’s updated estimates, global rapeseed production in 2026/27 could reach a record 100.25 mln tons, up 0.68 mln tons from the October forecast. By comparison, production totaled 96.04 mln tons in the previous season and 86.28 mln tons in 2024/25. The upward revision mainly reflects improved yield prospects in Australia and Uruguay. Meanwhile, the forecast for EU rapeseed imports was raised by 0.5 mln tons to 7.05 mln tons, compared with 6.96 mln tons last season. The increase in import requirements reflects stronger shipments from Ukraine and expectations of higher Australian production.

The forecast for global sunflower seed production in 2026/27 was lowered by 0.46 mln tons to 63.16 mln tons, although this remains significantly above the previous season’s 55.34 mln tons. The downward revision was mainly driven by weaker crop prospects in Russia and Argentina. In particular, sunflower seed production in Russia is projected at 20.4 mln tons, up 2.9 mln tons from 2025/26. At the same time, USDA raised its sunflower seed production estimate for South Africa due to an expansion in harvested area, partially offsetting lower output in other countries.

Total global oilseed crushing in 2026/27 is forecast at 612.28 mln tons, up 0.39 mln tons from October and 18.24 mln tons from the previous season. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by increased soybean and rapeseed processing. Meanwhile, global oilseed trade could reach 222.76 mln tons, compared with 216.95 mln tons in 2025/26. Global vegetable oil production is projected at 243.19 mln tons, while oilseed meal production is forecast at 416.49 mln tons. Despite higher processing volumes, the estimate for global oilseed ending stocks was lowered by 0.66 mln tons to 145.65 mln tons, compared with 145.56 mln tons last season.

Tags: rapeseed, USDA, soybean, oilseeds, USDA Report, sunseed