USDA attaché forecasts China’s soybean imports 5 mln tons below official estimate

China’s soybean imports could decline to 110 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, compared with 114 mln tons in the previous season, according to a forecast released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Beijing. The agricultural attaché’s estimate is 5 mln tons below the official USDA forecast of 115 mln tons. China remains the world’s largest soybean importer, meaning a potential reduction in its purchases would have significant implications for major exporting countries.

According to the USDA attaché, China’s soybean production in 2026/27 is expected to reach approximately 20.1 mln tons, compared with 19.93 mln tons last season. Meanwhile, the official USDA forecast projects a considerably larger harvest of 21 mln tons. The attaché estimates harvested soybean area at 10 mln hectares, down from 10.15 mln hectares a year earlier, with an average yield of 2.01 tons/ha. China remains the world’s fourth-largest soybean producer after Brazil, the United States and Argentina, but domestic production is insufficient to meet internal demand.

Significant differences between the forecasts also concern soybean crushing. The USDA office in Beijing expects crush volumes to decline from 108 mln tons in 2025/26 to 106 mln tons in the new season. In contrast, the official USDA estimate stands at 111 mln tons, or 5 mln tons higher. Total domestic soybean consumption is projected by the attaché at 130 mln tons, compared with the official USDA estimate of 136 mln tons. Ending stocks are forecast at 48.03 mln tons, also above the official estimate of 44.26 mln tons.

Regarding rapeseed, the US agricultural attaché forecasts China’s production to increase to 16.2 mln tons, compared with 16 mln tons last season. This matches the official USDA estimate and would keep China the world’s third-largest rapeseed producer after Canada and the European Union. Meanwhile, the attaché projects rapeseed imports at 4.1 mln tons, 900 thsd tons below the official USDA estimate of 5 mln tons. Rapeseed crushing is expected to reach 19.86 mln tons, while domestic consumption is forecast at 20.42 mln tons.

The differences between the USDA attaché’s estimates in Beijing and the department’s official forecasts highlight uncertainty over the outlook for Chinese oilseed demand in 2026/27. If actual soybean and rapeseed imports are closer to the attaché’s lower estimates, competition among global suppliers for the Chinese market could intensify. The soybean crush forecast remains particularly important, as this sector accounts for a significant share of China’s import demand and influences global trade in soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal.

Tags: China, soybean, imports