USDA attaché forecasts Canadian wheat exports to fall 2.8% to 29 mln tons

Canadian wheat exports in the MY 2026/27 could decline by 2.8% from the previous season to 28.95 mln tons, according to a November 4 report from the USDA attaché in Ottawa. The expected decline comes despite strong export activity at the beginning of the season, when monthly shipments approached or exceeded record levels. The attaché’s estimate is below the USDA’s official forecast of 30.5 mln tons but slightly above Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s projection of 28.75 mln tons.

The main reason for the expected export decline is reduced exportable grain supplies. Canadian wheat production in 2026 is estimated at 36.12 mln tons, compared with a record 40.56 mln tons a year earlier, representing a decrease of nearly 11%. Meanwhile, beginning stocks for 2026/27 increased to 6.65 mln tons from 4.24 mln tons in the previous season. Wheat prices and fluctuations in the Canadian dollar could also influence export prospects.

Another factor is the deterioration in the quality of part of the new crop. This season, a larger share of Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat has been graded No. 3 or feed quality. However, such grain could appeal to price-sensitive importers, including Ghana, Iran, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Mexico. China and India may also purchase No. 3 wheat for blending with higher-quality grain.

Canadian durum wheat exports are also expected to decline despite strong shipment volumes at the beginning of the season. The main factor is weaker import demand from North African countries, which represent Canada’s largest export market for durum wheat. In particular, large grain and durum harvests in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could reduce their need for foreign supplies, intensifying competition among global exporters.

Meanwhile, domestic feed wheat consumption in Canada is expected to increase slightly. According to the USDA attaché, feed wheat use in 2026/27 is projected at 3.75 mln tons, compared with 3.67 mln tons in the previous season. A larger share of lower-grade wheat could support its use in livestock feed, while future export trends will depend on global demand, the price competitiveness of Canadian wheat and conditions in key destination markets.

Tags: export, Canada, wheat