US soybean market is under pressure from all sides

As the U.S. soybean harvest season begins, the global soybean market is becoming more complex, with participants having to consider not only yields but a host of other factors beyond the traditional dynamics of the late-harvest cycle.

While the weather has generally been favorable for the crop this year and farmers are anticipating potentially record-high yields, the global soybean market is choppy. Since mid-June, new-crop soybean futures have fallen 7.2% before rising 4.3%, all on factors apparently unrelated to weather, according to World Grain.

There is much uncertainty around all three parts of the soybean complex, including potential crop size, soybean oil and biofuel demand, and strong soybean meal export demand.

Pressure from large crops in South America and a lack of buying from China are weighing heavily on the U.S. market, but recent reports point to robust demand for U.S. soybeans. In its latest report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that more than 6.1 million tons of soybeans were crushed in July, up 4% from June 2024, with oil, meal, and cake production up 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively.

Tags: China, soybean, USA