US soybean and corn production promises big harvest

The U.S. soybean crop is expected to be strong, thanks to favorable growing conditions, although some regions could experience warmer temperatures and drought in late August, which could impact yields. Export demand for soybeans remains uncertain as tariff tensions and competition with Brazil slow sales of the new crop. Trade talks between the U.S. and China are ongoing, but there are no concrete results yet. The USDA will release its weekly sales report on Thursday, which could shed light on export prospects.

U.S. corn production is also nearing the end of a key pollination phase, and forecasts point to a strong crop this year. The USDA is expected to raise its yield estimate in its updated supply and demand report next week. Brazil is harvesting its second corn crop, and an updated CONAB estimate will be released on August 14. Demand for corn remains solid, driven in part by its use in the ethanol industry.

U.S. ethanol production was 1.081 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration, down slightly from last week but up from a year ago. Ethanol inventories fell to 23.756 million barrels and exports were 116,000 barrels per day, indicating steady use of corn for biofuel production. These figures underscore corn’s importance to the energy sector, although weather remains a key factor in the harvest.

The wheat market is mixed. Chicago and Kansas City are seeing a pick-up in the winter wheat harvest, while Minneapolis has started the spring wheat harvest. The forecast calls for rain in the northern U.S. plains, which could delay harvest, but precipitation could still help the crop in the Canadian prairies. The USDA will release updated supply and demand data on August 12, which will help assess the global outlook.

The global wheat market is closely watching harvest results in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, as well as crop developments in Argentina and Australia. Rising global wheat inventories are creating challenging conditions for production, but local weather factors could impact harvest volumes.

Tags: corn, soybean, USA, crop forecast