US sorghum production to fall 37% to 6.95 mln tons

US grain sorghum production could decline by 37% in 2026 compared with the previous year, falling to 6.95 mln tons from 11.09 mln tons in 2025. According to USDA’s November forecast, production is estimated at 273.7 mln bushels, down 6% from the October projection. The sharp decline is primarily attributed to reduced harvested acreage and significantly lower yields across the country’s main sorghum-growing regions.

Average US sorghum yields are forecast at 52.4 bushels per acre this year, equivalent to approximately 3.29 tons per hectare. This is considerably below last year’s 72.6 bushels per acre, or around 4.56 tons per hectare. Compared with its October forecast, USDA lowered the yield estimate by a further 3.3 bushels per acre, reflecting a deterioration in expected harvest results.

The largest forecast revisions concern the main sorghum-producing states. In Kansas, the largest sorghum producer in the United States, expected yields were reduced from 65 to 59 bushels per acre. In Texas, the estimate was lowered from 47 to 45 bushels per acre, while Nebraska’s forecast declined from 85 to 80 bushels per acre. Lower crop productivity in these states has significantly affected the national production outlook.

Harvested acreage for grain sorghum has also declined. According to USDA, the area harvested in 2026 is expected to total 5.225 mln acres, or approximately 2.11 mln hectares, compared with more than 6 mln acres, equivalent to over 2.43 mln hectares, last year. The combination of reduced acreage and lower yields has resulted in one of the most significant annual declines in sorghum production.

The sharp reduction in output could tighten US sorghum supplies in domestic and international markets during the 2026/27 season. Further price developments will depend on demand from animal feed producers, export purchasing activity and competition from other feed grains, particularly corn. With production declining, the balance between domestic consumption and exports will become increasingly important in shaping the US sorghum market in 2027.

Tags: USA, sorghum