US overtakes Russia in global wheat export market share

The US has overtaken Russia in global wheat export market share amid a sharp decline in Russian shipments. The US share increased to 19.8%, while Russia’s fell to 18.1%. In the 2024/25 season, Russia still led the global market with a 21.3% share and exports of 52.4 mln tons.

Russia exported 38.1 mln tons of wheat in January-August 2026. The sharpest deterioration came in August, when shipments fell to 1.3 mln tons. In the final ten days of the month, Russia’s share of global wheat shipments dropped to just 12.4%.

The US, meanwhile, increased its share of global wheat exports by 1.4 percentage points to 19.8%. The expansion of shipments to North Africa and the Middle East helped strengthen the US position, as reduced availability of Russian wheat created additional opportunities for alternative suppliers.

The European Union also strengthened its position, with its share of global wheat exports rising to 14.2% amid improved yields, particularly in Poland and Romania. Ukraine also increased shipments to EU markets, exporting 3.5 mln tons of wheat since the beginning of the season.

Russia’s future market share will depend on the restoration of port infrastructure and the restructuring of export logistics. Under IKAR’s baseline forecast, if export logistics recover, Russia could ship up to 44.5 mln tons of wheat in 2026/27 and increase its share of global exports to 19.5%, approaching the current US share.

Tags: USA, Russia, Romania, EU, Poland, wheat