US oats production forecast raised

The US oats production forecast for the MY 2026/27 has been revised upward as higher yields offset a reduction in harvested area. According to updated USDA data, oats production is estimated at 69 mln bushels, or approximately 1 mln tons, up 1% from the previous forecast. The main reason for the revision was a 4% increase in the average yield estimate to 75.3 bushels per acre, equivalent to approximately 2.7 tons/ha.

Meanwhile, the forecast for US oats planted area was reduced by 1% to 2.6 mln acres (1.05 mln ha), while harvested area was lowered by 3% to approximately 1 mln acres (405 thsd ha). Thus, improved yields partially offset the reduction in harvested area and supported an upward revision in the overall production estimate.

The largest reduction in harvested area was recorded in Texas, where the estimate was cut by 41 thsd acres, or 48%. Harvested area estimates were also lowered in Minnesota and South Dakota by 20 thsd acres each, and in Kansas by 18 thsd acres. Meanwhile, the forecast for harvested area was raised by 70 thsd acres in North Dakota and 17 thsd acres in Idaho.

Despite a 13% reduction in North Dakota’s yield forecast, the expansion of harvested area led to a 4 mln bushel increase in the state’s oats production estimate. This was the largest positive revision among all US states. In contrast, Minnesota’s production forecast was lowered by 2 mln bushels.

Taking into account the updated production estimates, total US oats supply for 2026/27 was raised by 1 mln bushels to 173 mln bushels. The beginning stocks forecast was slightly reduced to 32 mln bushels, while ending stocks were revised upward by 1 mln bushels to 33 mln bushels. Other components of the oats supply and demand balance remained unchanged.

Tags: USA, oats