US may increase Belarus potash purchases in search of cheaper fertilizers

The US is considering larger purchases of potash from Belarus at prices below current supplies from Canada. President Donald Trump said Washington is working on a potential deal. Canada currently supplies the vast majority of US potash imports.

Belarus has already resumed potash sales to the US following the easing of American sanctions. However, logistics remain challenging because of limited access to Baltic ports and the need to use longer and more expensive shipping routes.

StoneX analysts doubt that Belarusian potash would significantly increase supplies or materially lower prices for US farmers. The US market is not facing a serious potash shortage, while tighter conditions are more evident in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Transport economics are another constraint. Even with broader access to Baltic logistics, the relatively low value of potash makes transatlantic shipments less competitive than supplies from neighboring Canada.

As a result, higher Belarusian shipments could broaden the supplier base for the US market, but are unlikely to significantly change the potash balance or prices in the near term.

Tags: Belarus, USA, fertilizers, potash, Canada