US increases corn supplies to EU amid Ukraine export disruptions

A smaller corn crop in the EU is sharply increasing the region’s import needs, but Ukraine may be unable to fully benefit from stronger demand due to disruptions to maritime logistics. In 2026/27, the EU is expected to import around 25 mln tons of corn, up from 19.3 mln tons last season, after its domestic production fell by about 10 mln tons.

Ukraine traditionally accounts for around half of EU corn imports and, with normal Black Sea port operations, could cover a significant share of the additional demand. However, restrictions on maritime exports are forcing cargoes to be redirected to the Danube, railways and road routes, which lack sufficient capacity to fully replace seaborne shipments.

Meanwhile, US corn is already gaining ground in the European market, supported by ample US supplies and competitive prices. In July-August, the US accounted for more than 40% of EU corn imports, overtaking Ukraine. Continued disruptions to Ukrainian maritime exports could shift an even larger share of European demand toward US suppliers.

The cost of alternative logistics remains a key challenge for Ukraine. According to UCAB, replacing maritime transport with other routes adds around €41/t to transportation costs, while the additional expense of redirecting the required volumes could exceed €1.1 bln. As a result, shipping US corn across the Atlantic may be more economical for some parts of Western and Central Europe than moving Ukrainian grain overland across the continent.

Europe’s feed industry is already looking primarily to North and South America for additional corn supplies. Demand is expected to be particularly strong from the livestock sector, where cheaper grain is needed to contain feed costs. Restoring stable maritime exports therefore remains critical for Ukraine to maintain its share of the growing EU corn import market.

Tags: corn, export, EU, corn export, USA, logistics, Ukraine