US corn production forecast lowered to 403.7 mln tons

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has once again significantly lowered its forecast for US corn production in the MY 2026/27 in its November WASDE report, cutting the estimate by 3.57 mln tons from October to 403.7 mln tons. This is 27.2 mln tons below last year’s harvest of 430.9 mln tons. The downward revision was larger than market participants had expected, providing support to futures prices. December corn futures in Chicago rose by 2.2% to $176.8 per ton following the report’s release.

The main reason for the downward revision was a reduction in the expected US corn yield from 181.2 to 179.6 bushels per acre, equivalent to approximately 11.27 tons per hectare. Analysts had anticipated a smaller adjustment to 180.3 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, USDA left its harvested area estimate unchanged at 88.5 mln acres, or around 35.8 mln hectares. The forecast for US corn ending stocks was lowered by 2.3 mln tons to 44.67 mln tons, also indicating tighter expected domestic supplies.

Global corn production in 2026/27 is forecast at 1.2916 bln tons, down 2.2 mln tons from the October estimate. In addition to the United States, USDA lowered its production forecasts for South Africa by 1.5 mln tons to 15 mln tons and for the EU by 0.5 mln tons to 47.5 mln tons. Meanwhile, expected production in Argentina was raised by 2 mln tons to 57 mln tons, while Brazil’s forecast was also increased by 2 mln tons to 141 mln tons. Improved crop prospects in South America are therefore partially offsetting production declines in other regions.

The global corn consumption forecast was reduced by 2.55 mln tons to 1.3179 bln tons, while projected world exports were lowered by 1.34 mln tons to 209.38 mln tons. In particular, USDA cut its US corn export forecast by 630 thsd tons to 83.19 mln tons and Ukraine’s by 2 mln tons to 20 mln tons. At the same time, projected exports from Argentina were raised by 2 mln tons to 40 mln tons. Despite the reduction in global production, the forecast for world ending stocks was increased by 1.5 mln tons to 281.94 mln tons following revisions to beginning stocks and consumption.

Favorable weather conditions for corn and soybean planting in South America are supporting prospects for the upcoming harvest and intensifying competition in the global grain market. Increased export potential in Argentina and Brazil could partially offset lower shipments from the United States and Ukraine. For Ukrainian exporters, this creates additional risks in the second half of the season, particularly as USDA has raised its forecast for Ukraine’s corn ending stocks by 2 mln tons to 7.53 mln tons.

Tags: corn, USA, global market