US corn crop may fall short of last year’s record

The US corn crop in 2026 is likely to fall below last year’s record. Results from the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicate that strong crop potential in the eastern Corn Belt may not be enough to offset losses caused by heat and drought in western areas.

In Iowa, the largest corn-producing state, average yield is estimated at 193.98 bushels/acre, down from 198.43 bushels/acre last year. In Minnesota, the estimate stands at 199.01 bushels/acre compared with 202.86 bushels/acre in 2025. However, yields in both states remain above their respective three-year averages.

Crop tour participants reported significant differences across the region. Crops in eastern Iowa and Minnesota are in good condition, while drought and high temperatures have limited corn potential in the Dakotas, Nebraska and western Iowa.

Heavy rainfall also caused nutrient leaching in some areas, while heat stress during pollination affected kernel development. Some fields showed tip-back, or incomplete kernel development at the tip of the ear, which could further reduce actual yields.

Nevertheless, overall US corn crop potential remains high and looks weaker mainly in comparison with the record 2025 season. The Pro Farmer results are being closely watched by the market, as USDA previously forecast the second-largest US corn crop on record in 2026.

Tags: corn, USA, crop forecast