US corn could replace Ukrainian supplies on the Egyptian market

Egypt may increase corn imports from the United States, as well as other North and South American suppliers, in the coming months to offset disruptions in shipments from Ukraine and meet the needs of its rapidly expanding poultry sector. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Egypt’s corn imports are expected to reach at least 13 mln tons in both the current and the next marketing year, setting a new record.

Corn demand in Egypt continues to rise alongside the growth of the poultry industry. USDA forecasts feed corn consumption at 17.4 mln tons in MY 2026/27, around 4 mln tons above the average of recent years. However, after strong imports in the spring, purchases slowed as lower poultry prices reduced import margins and weakened buying activity.

The disruption of Ukrainian exports comes at a time when Egypt needs to accelerate imports. Analysts note that even if Black Sea shipments resume, Ukraine will need time to restore normal export volumes. At the same time, grain storage facilities are filling up with newly harvested wheat, barley, and rapeseed, adding further pressure to export logistics.

If Ukrainian exports remain constrained, Brazil is likely to strengthen its position as Egypt’s leading supplier, having already accounted for more than half of the country’s corn imports. However, Brazilian corn has recently become less competitive due to higher export prices driven by strong domestic demand from ethanol producers and rising CBOT corn futures.

Argentina is also regaining market share in Egypt. Its exports this season have already exceeded those of any marketing year since MY 2020/21, while ample corn stocks and more competitive export prices have improved the position of Argentine suppliers relative to Brazil.

The situation could also create new opportunities for US corn. As the US harvest begins this autumn, Egypt may increase purchases from American exporters, particularly if Ukrainian shipments remain limited. Analysts warn, however, that greater reliance on US supplies would leave Egyptian buyers more exposed to global price volatility and uncertainty over the US crop outlook.

Tags: Ukraine, Egypt, corn, USA