UN raises 2030 global hunger forecast amid rising food risks

The number of people who could face chronic hunger worldwide by 2030 is estimated at 510–520 mln. The previous forecast was around 503 mln, but the outlook was revised to reflect the impact of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

One of the key factors is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has contributed to higher energy and fertilizer prices. This is increasing production costs in agriculture and adding to food inflation risks.

At the same time, the published forecast mainly reflects the consequences of the Middle East crisis and does not include several other potential risks. These include El Niño in 2026–2027, new waves of droughts and floods, and reductions in international aid.

Despite the weaker 2030 outlook, the global number of people facing hunger has declined for three consecutive years. In 2025, around 645 mln people, or 7.8% of the world’s population, faced hunger, 14 mln fewer than a year earlier.

Africa remains the most affected region, with around 309 mln people estimated to be facing hunger. Further trends will depend largely on food and fertilizer prices, weather conditions and the stability of global supply chains.

Tags: logistics, hunger, global hunger, UN, Hormuz