Ukrainian wheat prices could rise to $200–210/t this winter amid reduced planting areas

Ukrainian wheat prices could begin rising as early as late October and November amid expectations of reduced planting areas for the 2027 harvest. According to analysts at the PUSK agricultural cooperative, established within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC), wheat planting areas in Ukraine could decline by 10–20%. Under this scenario, prices for third-class wheat on a CPT basis at Danube ports could reach $200–210/t this winter.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian wheat exports remain relatively active in October. As of October 19, Ukraine had shipped 725 thsd tons of wheat, while around 1 mln tons had been contracted for the entire month. At the current pace, total exports could reach 1.1 mln tons, almost matching September’s level. Stable wheat demand is supported, in particular, by the absence of significant pressure from corn shipments at Danube ports.

Demand for wheat from Egypt remains steady in international markets. Wheat with 12.5% protein is priced at $310–311/t, while 11.5% protein wheat is quoted at $302–303/t. However, high logistics costs continue to limit the competitiveness of Ukrainian supplies. In particular, freight rates from Danube ports to Egypt stand at around $105–110/t, meaning transportation accounts for approximately 30% of the grain’s value. As of October 16, the indicative price of Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein was $176/t CPT Danube port and $188/t DAP Reni.

The global wheat market is showing relative price stabilization following a period of heightened volatility. Prices in Asia and Egypt have declined slightly as the market has already priced in the main risks and supply constraints. Meanwhile, traders are increasingly focusing on production prospects for the next season. In Ukraine, the optimal wheat planting window is coming to an end, and a potential reduction in planted areas could lead to lower grain supplies in the coming season.

PUSK analysts note that the global wheat market balance remains relatively fragile, meaning any reduction in supply could provide additional support for prices. Under these conditions, farmers are advised to consider postponing sales of part of their wheat harvest until winter.

Tags: prices, wheat, Danube region