Ukrainian wheat carryover stocks at 20-year low — USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine compared to last year despite minor changes in the crop estimates. This is evidenced by the data in the USDA report for October.

Experts noted that the wheat production in Ukraine was adjusted by 600 thsd tonnes (22.9 mln tonnes), and now it is almost unchanged compared to the previous year.

“However, export supplies are at the lowest level in the last 10 years, as they are limited by the smallest carryover stocks in the last 20 years,” they explain.

The USDA emphasizes that despite the decline in supplies, competitive export prices, continued access to deep-water ports on the Black Sea and reduced competition from the European Union contributed to the growth of wheat exports in the first quarter – up to 6.2 million tons. This is almost twice as much as in the same period last year.

“Although Spain remains the largest export market, Ukraine has significantly increased its exports to Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria and other key markets in Asia and the Middle East,” the experts say.

Ukraine’s wheat exports in MY 2024/25 are forecasted at 16.0 mln tonnes, down 2.6 mln tonnes from last year, as the exports are expected to slow down after the corn harvest and return to the typical seasonal supply patterns.

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Tags: Ukraine, wheat, stocks