Ukrainian soybeans have a chance to maintain their positions in premium EU markets

The EU soybean market is extremely dependent on external supplies: growing about 3 million tons per year, the EU countries need an additional about 33 million tons of beans.

In 2025, analysts at Danube Soy predict that the area sown with soybeans in the EU will decrease by 5-10%. The reduction in the area sown in the EU countries is mainly due to the low quality and yield of the previous season.

On the world market, Brazil is traditionally the main supplier of non-GM soybean products – beans, high-protein meal and SPC (soy protein concentrate).

However, exports of non-GM Brazilian soybeans to Europe may decrease due to a decrease in demand by 30-35% compared to 2024 and will amount to less than 1.0 million tons.

In 2025/26, the EU is likely to partially compensate for this loss of Brazilian non-GM supplies by importing from elsewhere.

Ukraine, as a key supplier of regional soybeans in Europe, has the potential for a record harvest this year. Thus, analysts at Danube Soy predict soybean areas in Ukraine at 2.3-2.5 million hectares (2.6 million hectares in 2024), but a higher gross harvest (+2% compared to last year).

But it is worth remembering that the 2025 harvest will be the first to be subject to Regulation (EU) 2023/1115, aimed at preventing imports of products linked to deforestation and forest degradation.

For Ukrainian agricultural producers, this means that from the end of 2025, the export of soybeans and their processed products to the EU will be possible only if new requirements for traceability and confirmation of the sustainable origin of raw materials are met.

The main standards are reduced to full traceability of each batch of soybeans to a specific field with the provision of geocoordinates, confirmation of the absence of deforestation after 2020 and documentary certification of the legality of production. Producers should now prepare geodata (in GeoJSON format), satellite images or other evidence of the immutability of lands, as well as title documents for plots.

These innovations pose certain challenges – in particular, the need for additional resources for auditing, digitalization and documentation support. This is especially true for small and medium-sized players. At the same time, Ukraine has a chance to strengthen its position in the European market, because against the background of restrictions for other supplier countries (primarily with high risks of deforestation), our soybeans can become competitive as “pure” in origin.

New EU regulatory requirements for product traceability are encouraging Ukrainian producers to move from exporting raw materials to deeper processing within the country. In the 2023/24 marketing year, processing volumes have already exceeded 2 million tons, which is 10–15% more than in the previous period. In addition, the share of exports of processed soybeans — meal and oil — is growing, which allows not only to meet new standards, but also to create added value in Ukraine.

The Danube Soy Association records positive trends: the number of certified processors is increasing, cooperation between agricultural producers and processing enterprises is developing. Such steps open up access to premium market segments and allow Ukrainian soybeans to compete on the global stage both in terms of quality and sustainability standards.

The soybean market is currently in a downward trend: both in Europe and globally, prices have sagged under the pressure of a record harvest in Brazil and fluctuations in the currency and energy markets. In the EU, non-GM soybean is trading at 420 euros per ton, and premiums for non-GM meal have fallen to their lowest levels in recent months.

For Ukrainian agricultural producers, this means more difficult conditions for earning money: the market will remain marginal only for those who are ready to offer not just raw materials, but a certified, traceable product in accordance with new EU rules. It is quality, compliance with sustainability standards and deeper processing that are becoming the key to maintaining profitability in the 2024/25 season.

Ukrainian soybean has a chance to maintain its position in premium EU markets, but the bet should be on confirmed non-GM status and new traceability requirements – this is no longer an option, but a necessity for successful exports.

Anastasia Radiuk, Quality Manager of the Danube Soya Association

Tags: Ukraine, EU, soybean