Ukrainian farmers to cut wheat area on low prices, but rapeseed is no safe alternative
Low wheat prices and export logistics problems are prompting some Ukrainian farmers to cut winter wheat area for the 2027 crop. Some farms are shifting land to crops with better economics or lower production risks. At Dmytrivske farm in Mykolaiv region, wheat area is expected to fall by 10–15%, while a farm in Sumy region is also reducing wheat plantings because current prices do not justify high production costs and risks.
Rapeseed remains a potentially more attractive option, but farmers are not shifting to it on a large scale. A lack of soil moisture is limiting planting, particularly in southern Ukraine. Some farms in Mykolaiv region are planting only where sufficient rain has fallen, while producers in Odesa region are sowing into dry soil and betting on future rainfall.
Moisture problems have also spread beyond southern regions. At one farm in Ternopil region, soil at a depth of 40–50 cm is virtually dry, prompting a reduction in rapeseed area. More than half of the crop there has been planted into dry soil in anticipation of rain.
Rapeseed nevertheless has an advantage amid disruptions to Ukraine’s seaborne exports. Farmers can sell the crop as seed or process it into rapeseed oil, which can be shipped in flexitanks and is less dependent on deepwater grain terminals. Overall, farmers are not simply replacing wheat with rapeseed but are adjusting crop rotations according to prices, logistics and soil moisture.
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