Ukrainian corn prices fall amid Black Sea attacks

Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have forced traders to almost completely halt corn purchases. As a result, Ukraine’s domestic export prices have fallen by UAH 500–600/mt to UAH 10,000–10,100/mt delivered to port.

Processors have also reduced their buying prices by UAH 300–400/mt to UAH 9,300–9,500/mt. However, new-crop corn prices for October-November delivery remain at $214–217/mt, supported by rising prices on international futures markets.

At Ukraine’s western border, prices for August rail shipments increased by €10/mt to €200–202/mt (or $225–233/mt) due to stronger demand from the European Union. However, Ukrainian exporters have limited available supplies and are struggling to assemble the minimum export lot of 1,800 mt. Meanwhile, weather conditions across Ukraine remain favorable for crop development.

Globally, the disruption of Ukrainian grain exports caused by the attacks has triggered speculative price gains. On the Euronext exchange in Paris, November corn futures rose 5% to €243.75/mt (or $278.8/mt), bringing monthly gains to 17.6%. The rally has also been supported by drought in France, where the share of corn rated in good or excellent condition fell by 11 percentage points to 47%, compared with 75% a year earlier. France’s corn crop is now forecast at 8.9–9.5 million mt, down from 12 million mt last season.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for EU corn imports by 3 million mt to 22.5 million mt. Part of this demand in August and September could be supplied by Brazil, which is expected to increase July corn exports to 3.44 million mt from 2.43 million mt a year earlier.

“Growing corn supplies from Brazil could quickly satisfy EU demand in August and September, while Ukraine’s new-crop corn entering the market in October will face strong competition from U.S. corn in the European market,” analysts said.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices