Ukrainian corn exports are entering a “golden period”

December was an important month for Ukrainian corn exports. As of December 23, 2024, Ukraine exported almost 1.7 mln tonnes of corn, and experts expect the total volume for the month to exceed 2 mln tonnes. However, in the first half of December, there were problems with shipments, which slowed down the pace of exports. This was reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

Corn prices are stable at 205-207 USD/t on CPT basis, and have the potential to reach 210-215 USD/t in January. The key factor that may affect further price growth is weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina. “The corn market is in a kind of “golden period”. In January, any importer who wants to receive supplies has to turn to Ukraine, as the US corn is already sold out. This creates conditions for sellers to dictate the price. But it is important to remember that in February-March we may face competitive pressure on the European market due to cheaper US corn,” PUSK analysts say.

Ukrainian corn remains the main player on the European market, while the US actively exports to Latin America and Mexico. However, the price difference between Ukrainian and American corn on the European market is about 10 USD/t in favor of American products.

According to forecasts, in January, the market will be sensitive to news about the second crop sowing campaign in Brazil and the condition of crops in Argentina, where there are already problems with moisture.

“Over the past 10 years, only twice the corn market has been stable in January and February without significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the probability of getting higher prices during this period is quite high. But in April-May, corn may become a scarce commodity, which will again create the preconditions for the price growth,” the analysts added.

Tags: export, Ukraine, corn