Ukrainian barley – crunch, exports & pricing in the 2025/26 start

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

In 2024/25 barley exports were at 2.18 M mt (–12 % vs. 2023/24), lowest since 2012/13 despite above-average yields; area cuts decreased 2024 harvest.  Exports were the biggest in Q1 of the 2024/25 (July-Sep), near zero in Jan-June 2025. China bought about 700 K mt in Q1 but then vanished; top buyers since: Libya, Spain, Jordan; Saudi Arabia almost zero purchases.

Barley harvesting and exports estimates, 2025/26 

Initially reported yields are very low; central regions may rebound but southern shortfall determine the total harvest. Barley production estimate was trimmed.

Market outlook

Barley supply and exports will peak over next three months. As it was last season, China may switch back to Australia/Argentina from Nov as these countries’ crops look strong.  Loss of premium demand will pressure CPT bids, so far, demand dictates prices.

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Tags: China, export, barley, prices, Saudi Arabia, Libia, Jordan, Ukraine