Ukraine’s grain stocks could reach a record 36 mln tons — USDA/FAS

Ending stocks of major grains in Ukraine could reach a record 36.1 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, more than quadrupling the previous season’s level. The forecast was released by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) office in Ukraine. Analysts attribute the sharp increase in grain inventories primarily to severe export restrictions caused by escalating military risks and disruptions to shipping in the Black Sea.

The largest increase in stocks is expected in the corn market. According to USDA/FAS, corn ending stocks could reach nearly 20 mln tons by the end of 2026/27, compared with 2.86 mln tons in the previous season. Wheat ending stocks are projected at 11.8 mln tons, up from 2.46 mln tons a year earlier.

Meanwhile, US analysts expect a sharp decline in Ukrainian grain exports. Corn shipments in 2026/27 could fall to 10.2 mln tons from 22.2 mln tons last season, a decrease of approximately 54%. Wheat exports are forecast at 8.7 mln tons, compared with 14.1 mln tons a year earlier, representing a decline of nearly 38%. The main factor behind these changes remains logistical constraints, particularly at Black Sea ports, which have traditionally handled the bulk of Ukraine’s grain exports.

At the same time, Ukraine’s grain production could increase. USDA/FAS has raised its previous estimates for corn, wheat and barley output to the highest levels since the 2021/22 season. Corn production is projected at 33.5 mln tons, up from 30.6 mln tons last year, while wheat output is expected to reach 26.8 mln tons, compared with 24 mln tons. Barley production is forecast at 7 mln tons, up from 5.54 mln tons in the previous season.

Analysts also highlight risks to the corn harvest. Due to logistical difficulties and insufficient storage capacity at some farms, part of the crop may remain unharvested in the fields, potentially leading to a further downward revision of production estimates. Meanwhile, according to USDA/FAS, Ukraine has secured additional temporary storage capacity to accommodate surplus grain during the season.

Tags: grain stocks, Ukraine, corn, grain, wheat