Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports could reach 50.8 mln tons in the new season

Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest is forecast at 83.6 mln tons in 2026, up 3.6 mln tons from the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).

Exports in the 2026/27 season could potentially reach 50.8 mln tons, compared to an estimated 42.3 mln tons in the current season. However, this represents an optimistic scenario that will only be achievable if Ukraine’s logistics situation does not deteriorate further due to Russia’s aggression and continued attacks on the country’s transport infrastructure and energy facilities.

Wheat exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could reach 17 mln tons, up from 13.5 mln tons in the current season.

Barley exports are projected at around 2.2 mln tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, compared to 1.6 mln tons in the current season.

UGA estimates Ukraine’s corn harvest at 32.1 mln tons (up from 31.1 mln tons in 2025), while exports could reach 27 mln tons in the new season, provided logistics remain uninterrupted. Corn exports are estimated at 22 mln tons in the current season.

The 2026 sunflower seed harvest is forecast at 13.3 mln tons, compared to 11.1 mln tons in 2025. Traditionally, almost the entire sunflower seed crop will be processed domestically, with crushing expected to reach 13.5 mln tons. Exports are forecast at no more than 50 thsd tons.

Rapeseed production is expected to reach 3.4 mln tons in 2026, up from 3.2 mln tons in 2025. Rapeseed exports in the 2026/27 marketing year are projected at 1.9 mln tons, with the remaining volume to be processed in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s soybean harvest is forecast at 4.9 mln tons in 2026, slightly below the 5 mln tons harvested in 2025. Soybean exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could total 2.3 mln tons, down from 2.9 mln tons in the current season. The remaining soybeans are expected to be processed domestically, as legislative restrictions have made exports of soybeans, as well as rapeseed, more difficult.

Tags: Ukraine, export, grain, oilseeds