Ukraine wheat, corn exports set to fall nearly a quarter in 2024/25, official says

Ukrainian exports of agricultural commodities wheat and corn are likely to fall by nearly a quarter in the upcoming 2024/25 July-June season following a smaller harvest as a result of war, the first deputy agriculture minister said on Thursday.

Disclosing for the first time, the official forecast for 2024/25, Taras Vysotskiy said the export of wheat could fall to 14 million metric tons from 18 million tons in 2023/24. Corn exports could fall to 20-21 million tons from 27 million, although barley shipments are expected to be steady at 3 million tons, he said.

Apart from the impact of war on available farmland, the grain harvest can suffer from frosts in May or drought in May-June. Vysotskiy said that so far crops are in good condition and the ministry “has yet to see any negative factors that would affect the harvest”.

The prediction of lower exports follows forecasts of lower production from the ministry last month. It said Ukraine’s grain harvest was likely to fall to about 52 million metric tons this year from 58 million tons in 2023, mostly because of a reduced sowing area. The area for corn was likely to drop 4.5% to 3.863 million hectares this year from 4.043 million in 2023. Farmers may also reduce the area sown for spring wheat and sunflowers, but are expected to try to compensate by increasing it for spring barley and soybeans.

The agriculture ministry’s crop forecast showed Ukraine could harvest 27 million tons of corn, 19 million tons of wheat and 5 million tons of barley this year. Ukraine’s 2023 grain crop totalled around 60 million tons, including 22.2 million tons of wheat and 30.5 million tons of corn and 5.7 million tons of barley.

Ukrainian grain traders’ union UGA said in March the combined grain and oilseeds harvest for 2024 was likely to shrink to 76.1 million tons from 82.6 million last year – far below the 107 million tons harvested before the Russian invasion. The UGA said the harvest could include 26.3 million tons of corn, 20 million tons of wheat and 13.7 million tons of sunflower seeds.

The official forecast of exports revealed by Vysotskiy is close to expectations from traders who said last month Ukraine was likely to export 13 million tons of wheat, 20.5 million tons of corn and 2 million tons of barley in 2024/25.

Tags: crop, forecast, shipments, Ukraine, agricultural commodities, exports, harvest, corn, grain, barley, Production, wheat