Ukraine: S&D of oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals (June 2024)

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Sunflower seed/Sunflower Oil/Meal market. Season of 2023/24 (Sept-Aug)

SFS exports are lower in 2023/24 than last season due to bans imposed by EU countries;

SFS stocks decreased in June due to high crushing and stable export demand;

The lower SFO and meal exports in Sept-Dec 2023 are offset by high shipments in Jan-May 2024, exports are higher year-on-year by 21% and 22%, respectively;

SFO exports remain high even in the second half of 2023/24 season (February-June), May monthly exports were record at 714 K mt.

Soybeans/Soy Oil/Meal markets

Soybean S&D is adjusted to increase crushing due to decrease in exports

Soybean exports have been declining since January. Exports for the nine months of 2023/24 (Sept-May) is by 4% behind last season

Soybean oil exports are record, soybean meal shipments are also the highest in the last four seasons.

Rapeseed/Rapeseed Oil/Meal

The last month of the rapeseed is underway. Taking into account the export rates of rapeseed, oil and meal, the rapeseed S&D needs in revaluation of the harvest.

Exports of rapeseed/canola oil/meal are at record levels, even May shipments were impressively high;

The export potential is almost fully realized, for eleven months of 2023/24 rapeseed exports (+7% to 2022/23 season);

2024/25 Season Forecast

Based on the market analysis in the previous seasons, calculations of the oilseed farmers’ margins, as well as the current non-market factors, UkrAgroConsult forecasts for 2024 the following:

Oilseed areas (UkrAgroConsult):

• Sunflower (+1.7% to 2023/24);
• Soybeans (+10%);
• Rapeseed (-5.7%).

Oilseeds harvest  (UkrAgroConsult):

• Sunflower seed (-3% by 2023/24);
• Soybeans (+10% y/y);
• Rapeseed (-19%).

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Tags: soybean oil, prices, soybean, sunseed, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, supply and demand balance, crop forecast, Ukraine, sunflower oil, export