Ukraine. Rapeseed market 2025. Pessimism becomes the base case
UkrAgroConsult
Article author:
Ukraine’s 2025 rapeseed harvest outlook is shifting from cautious to outright pessimistic. The pessimistic scenario is quickly becoming the central one — and the market is adjusting accordingly.
Despite May rains replenishing soil moisture, they also disrupted field operations — and it may be too little, too late for a crop already hit by last autumn drought and May frosts.
UkrAgroConsult revised its 2025 rapeseed harvest forecast, the weakest harvest in four years.
Weather: A Blessing and a Curse
While May rainfall finally was significant, especially in central and southern Ukraine, frequent showers are now preventing farmers from applying crop protection, putting disease into play.
Key issues include:
- Yield potential downgrade
- UkrAgroConsult increased rapeseed area losses, as poor fields were replanted with other crops.
- Logistical disruption
Market Reaction: Farmers Pull Back, Prices Heat Up
The Road Ahead: More Risk, More Volatility
Full version of the article is available to subscribers of the Weekly ‘BLACK SEA & DANUBE OILSEED REPORT’ by UkrAgroConsult.
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