Ukraine: Positive expectations for the flax market in 2023/24

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

2022/23 season 

– Flax area (+20% compared to 2021/22 MY, the highest for the last five seasons);

– Yield (-44% from the record high of 2021/22 MY, the lowest for the last four seasons)

– Harvest – 27.5 K mt (-34% compared to 2021/22 MY);

In 2022/23 season, share of linseed exports in the harvest fell to 67% compared to 83% the previous year as other countries production increased impressively:

Flax exports in the 2022/23 – 17.6 K mt (-49% compared to 2021/22 MY), the EU is the main importer.

Season of 2023/24 

In 2023, the area planted to oilseeds increased due to the higher oilseeds profitability compared to cereals, including flax, which is no exception despite being a niche crop:

– The area is expected to increase to the maximum for the last 6 years;

– Yield at the level of the average of the last three years (lower moisture discouraged high yields);

– the 2023 Flax harvest expected to reach 40 K mt.

Flax export potential (+14% by 2022/23). The level of exports will traditionally depend on the demand from EU countries, as well as on logistics in a war situation, which remains one of the most pressing issues.

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Tags: Ukraine, export, linseed oil, crop forecast