Ukraine may reduce its sown area by 20 % due to export problems — opinion

Ukraine could reduce its planted area by around 20% next season if problems with agricultural exports through Black Sea ports are not resolved. This view was expressed by Kernel CEO Yevhen Osypov in comments to Bloomberg.

According to his estimates, limited grain export capacity threatens farmers’ financial ability to fund the next planting campaign. A 20% reduction in planted area could result in Ukraine producing around 12 mln tons less food grain.

The situation is being exacerbated by a sharp decline in maritime exports. According to Osypov, problems with the operation of Black Sea ports have reduced shipment volumes to less than 10% of the levels seen at the beginning of the year.

With exports running at a low pace, a significant share of this year’s harvest will remain inside the country. Farmers will have to rely more heavily on grain storage bags and other temporary storage facilities.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry has warned that the country could exhaust its available grain storage capacity by early November if export problems persist. Prolonged constraints on maritime logistics therefore pose risks not only to marketing the 2026 harvest but also to agricultural production next season.

Tags: Ukraine, sown area