Australia could increase global wheat supplies thanks to a strong harvest in Victoria

Australia’s Victoria state is showing prospects for a significant increase in wheat production in the MY 2026/27, potentially helping to partially offset reduced grain shipments from the Black Sea region. During a two-day survey of wheat and barley crops in the state’s northwest, experts observed strong yield potential and only minor damage from excessive moisture and diseases. According to Bloomberg, the positive survey results are raising expectations of increased Australian grain supplies to international markets, particularly Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

The survey was organized by the Grain Industry Association of Victoria, whose representatives traveled approximately 900 km through grain-growing regions over two days. According to Dominic Hogan, manager at Outlook Commodities, participants struggled to find poorly performing fields with low yield potential that would normally be cut for hay or used for livestock grazing. Even in areas where yields are traditionally lower, wheat crop conditions were better than usual. The official survey findings are expected to be released within the following week.

According to the September forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), wheat production in Victoria could increase by 15.2% to 4.9 mln tons in the 2026/27 season. Average yields are projected at 3.4 t/ha, up 18% year-on-year. Meanwhile, conditions remain mixed across other Australian regions. Drought has negatively affected grain production prospects in Queensland, while Western Australia’s harvest could decline by approximately 3 mln tons compared with the previous season.

Favorable crop prospects in Victoria coincide with growing international demand for Australian grain. As security conditions in the Black Sea deteriorate and exports from Ukraine and russia face restrictions, buyers are seeking alternative suppliers. Vietnam and Indonesia, in particular, have already stepped up their search for alternative grain sources. According to Bendigo Bank estimates, Australia could export around 2.6 mln tons of grain in October, nearly 50% above the average for the month. Amid stronger demand, Australian milling wheat prices at major ports are trading near their highest levels in more than two years.

However, final harvest results in Victoria will depend on weather conditions over the coming weeks. Farmers had previously been concerned about the impact of high fuel and fertilizer costs, as well as the potential for worsening drought due to El Niño. So far, however, these risks have not led to a significant deterioration in crop conditions. If favorable weather continues through harvest, Victoria could produce substantial volumes of high-quality wheat for domestic consumption and export, supporting Australia’s position in the global grain market.

Tags: Australia, export, wheat, global market