Ukraine may export 9 million tonnes less maize due to maritime logistics issues

The USDA’s FAS has revised its forecast for Ukrainian grain exports in the MY 2026/27. The most significant downward revisions have been made to the export estimates for maize and wheat, against the backdrop of Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the Black Sea. This is stated in the August report.

The FAS USDA has revised its maize export forecast the most significantly. Whilst the USDA’s official forecast predicted exports of 23 mln tons, the FAS Kyiv estimate stands at just 14 mln tons – a reduction of 9 mln tons, or nearly 39 pct.

The forecast for wheat exports has also been lowered – from 14.5 mln tons to 10.8 mln tons, a reduction of 3.7 mln tons (25.5 pct.).

At the same time, the forecast for barley exports has been raised slightly — from 2.4 mln tons to 2.5 mln tons.

The USDA’s FAS attributes the revision of the forecasts to the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea. The report notes that Russia has intensified its attacks on civilian vessels and Ukraine’s port infrastructure. Although the maritime corridor is not officially closed, shipowners are increasingly refusing to call at ports in the Greater Odesa area due to the high risks involved, which has led to a shortage of tonnage.

According to FAS Kyiv’s estimates, under these conditions, average monthly grain exports in the MY 2026/27 will amount to 2.3 mln tons, which is below the average for the first half of 2026. At the same time, the agency emphasises that the forecast may change depending on the security situation in the Black Sea and developments in land and river logistics.

Tags: corn, export, Ukraine