Ukraine may cut corn production forecast amid lower-than-expected yields

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food may revise its 2026 corn production forecast downward. The baseline estimate currently remains at 30 mln tons, but actual yields in several regions have been significantly lower than expected. This was reported by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi during a briefing with journalists.

According to the minister, the situation is particularly concerning in the Chernihiv region, one of Ukraine’s key corn-producing areas. Actual yields recorded during harvesting have fallen well below earlier forecasts. Similar reports are coming from other regions, raising the risk that total corn production will fall short of expectations.

Ukrainian farmers have currently harvested just over 20% of the corn area, making it too early to draw final conclusions about total production. The ministry expects to obtain a more accurate estimate once harvesting reaches at least 50–60% of the planted area. For now, the forecast remains at 30 mln tons, but it could be revised downward if lower yields are confirmed.

According to preliminary estimates, Ukraine’s corn harvest is expected to reach at least 25 mln tons. The final result will depend on yields across the remaining unharvested areas. Meanwhile, corn harvesting will continue through November and December, meaning production estimates may be revised at later stages of the harvest campaign.

Unlike corn, harvesting of Ukraine’s major oilseed crops is nearing completion. As of the second half of October, sunflower seed had been harvested from approximately 80% of the area, while soybean harvesting had exceeded 85%. The ministry expects harvesting of both crops to be virtually completed by the end of October. As a result, corn will account for the bulk of the remaining fieldwork in November and December.

Tags: corn, Ukraine