European and US wheat prices decline, but Black Sea tensions limit further losses

Global wheat prices continue to decline amid predominantly bearish market conditions. Over the past week, European wheat prices fell by 2.3%, while US wheat futures on the Chicago exchange dropped by 3.1%. According to agricultural market analyst Cezar Gheorghe, ongoing tensions in the Black Sea region remain the main factor supporting European wheat prices.

Despite the overall downward trend, European wheat prices are holding within a range of €226–230/t. The analyst noted that the market is no longer significantly influenced by weather conditions or other traditional price-supporting factors. Instead, risks to maritime shipping and potential disruptions to grain exports through the Black Sea have become the key drivers of market sentiment.

Adverse weather conditions are also affecting the market by disrupting port operations. In particular, the Sulina Canal, an important route for grain shipments along the Danube, was temporarily closed due to storms. Such restrictions are slowing export shipments and providing additional support to European wheat prices.

Meanwhile, the potential resumption of Russian grain exports through the Kerch Strait could put further pressure on the global market. According to Gheorghe, Russia is considering providing military escorts for wheat-carrying vessels to protect them from drone attacks. If these measures allow maritime shipments to increase, additional Russian grain supplies could intensify competition among exporters and accelerate the decline in global wheat prices.

The analyst believes that current support for European wheat prices is fragile and largely depends on further developments in the Black Sea. If logistics restrictions ease and regular grain shipments resume, European wheat could face additional downward price pressure. The overall trend in the global wheat market remains bearish, with geopolitical risks providing only temporary support to prices.

Tags: Romania, EU, prices, Black Sea region, wheat, USA