Ukraine. Hopes for seasonal increase in food wheat prices may not be realized

According to the estimates of the Ukrainian Grain Association and many market participants, the export potential of this crop in the current season is about 17 million tons. Considering that as of the end of February, 9 million tons of wheat were exported, in fact, we have four months to export about 8 million tons.

This was stated by Oleksandr Solovey, CEO of Spike Brokers, in his article for The Ukrainian Farmer.

“Considering that we export about 500 thousand tons every month, the transitional balance will be about 5 million tons,” the specialist emphasized.

According to him, domestic consumption of food and feed wheat is about

7 million tons. However, processing capacities have limited potential and high competition in sales markets. Therefore, processing will not be able to compensate for exports.

“Many market participants have expectations of a price increase, as usually happens in the spring. However, currently the cost of food wheat on the spot market does not exceed $222/t, and this is by no means more than the price of $235–236/t, which was at the end of July – in August 2025. In addition, the factor of the new harvest is already beginning to affect pricing, – noted Oleksandr Solovey.

Tags: prices, wheat