Ukraine faces no shortage of farm grain silos despite possible rise in 2025/26 ending stocks

Increased Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ports, energy system, and domestic logistics could lead to slower exports and higher ending grain stocks in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the USDA FAS report dated February 4, 2026.

At the same time, FAS notes that Ukraine does not have a shortage of domestic farm silos, so a possible slowdown in exports would not necessarily lead to grain spoilage or disposal due to improper storage conditions.

In the first half of the MY2025/26 (July–December 2025), the average rate of grain exports from Ukraine was 30% slower than in the same period in MY 2024/25. Exports in the 2025 calendar year were limited by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, rail and port infrastructure, and vessels — both in ports and in the Black Sea.

According to FAS estimates, in the period from July to December 2025, Ukraine shipped approximately half of its projected wheat export potential in the MY 2025/26. At the beginning of the season, farmers mainly sold feed wheat, holding back food wheat, which is better stored and can be sold at higher prices in the second half of the marketing year. FAS assumes that wheat exports in the MY 2025/26 will develop according to a scenario similar to the previous season, with the gradual sale of the main volumes of food wheat in the second half of the year.

Barley exports in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year amounted to 1.3 million tons, which is 34% less than in the same period last year. Deliveries decreased to all traditional destinations, in particular to the EU, China and Libya. This decline was not offset by increased imports from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Turkey, which likely acted as a transit country.

Corn exports at the beginning of the MY 2025/26 (October–December 2025) amounted to 5.0 million tonnes, which is 29% less than in the previous season. Deliveries to the EU decreased by 41%, to Turkey by 18%. According to industry data, during this period, farmers mainly sold corn that was unsuitable for long-term storage due to its quality indicators.

Taking into account current production estimates and actual export volumes, the USDA FAS forecasts the following export volumes in the MY 2025/26:

• Barley – 3.1 million tons
• Wheat – 14.3 million tons
• Corn – 23.2 million tons
• Rye – 10 thousand tons

FAS estimates are based on the assumption of uninterrupted operation of Black Sea ports and the ability of rail logistics to ensure the transportation of grain from inland silos to ports.

Tags: Ukraine, grain storage, silos