Ukraine exported only a third of its potential agricultural volumes in August

Due to Russian attacks on seaports, Ukraine was able to export only around 1.7 mln tons of agricultural products via alternative routes in August 2026, equivalent to about one-third of its potential export volume. This was reported by Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi.

Ukraine’s ability to redirect cargo remains limited. Rail, road and Danube routes, even under favorable conditions, can handle only 45–50% of the country’s annual agricultural exports. The key challenge is that alternative logistics cannot fully replace the capacity of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

In August, 1.297 mln tons of grain cargo were transported by rail in Ukraine. This was 34.7% lower than in July and 53.9% below the level recorded in August last year. Ukrainian Railways continues to develop alternative routes for grain exports amid restrictions on maritime shipments.

The disruption to maritime logistics has already affected Ukraine’s foreign trade outlook. The country has cut its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 season by 12% from its previous estimate to 38–40 mln tons. Future shipment volumes will largely depend on the ability to restore maritime exports and increase flows through alternative routes.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, restrictions on seaport operations in the second half of the year could cost the country more than $2 bln in lost export revenues. Prolonged constraints on Black Sea logistics therefore remain one of the key risks to Ukraine’s agricultural exports.