Ukraine expands use of satellite data to improve official agricultural statistics

Ukraine’s State Statistics Service has significantly expanded the use of satellite imagery during the war to improve the collection and verification of official agricultural production data. The agency’s head, Arsen Makarchuk, outlined the approach in an opinion article published by Interfax-Ukraine.

According to him, the war has made field surveys much more difficult, even in government-controlled areas, because of landmines, active hostilities and frontline conditions, where direct contact with farmers is often impossible. In such cases, satellite imagery has become the only practical source of information on crops growing in the fields.

Since 2019, the State Statistics Service has compared survey data collected from farmers with satellite-based estimates provided by five independent data providers.

Makarchuk said the comparison revealed significant and inconsistent differences. Official statistics exceeded satellite estimates for sugar beet by between 4% and 69%, while spring barley estimates were 29% to 2.9 times higher. In contrast, official wheat figures were 19–40% lower than satellite estimates, and spring rapeseed data were 73–94% lower. Corn estimates varied from 15% below to 85% above satellite assessments, with the direction of the discrepancies changing from year to year.

At the same time, estimates produced by an international research team supported by the FAO and the EBRD differed from Ukraine’s official statistics by no more than the normal sampling error for most crops.

Makarchuk emphasized that satellite imagery can provide highly accurate estimates for crops grown on large fields, but only when combined with official statistical methods. He stressed that satellite data are intended to complement rather than replace traditional statistical surveys.

According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine has already incorporated satellite data into its official statistical methodology. Under the updated rules, official agricultural statistics may be adjusted when satellite-based estimates exceed survey results by more than the accepted sampling error, making the country’s agricultural data more complete, accurate and resilient.