Ukraine cuts grain export forecast due to seaport blockade

Ukraine has lowered its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 season to 38–40 mln tons due to intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure in the Odesa region. The previous official forecast put grain exports this season at around 43 mln tons.

Deputy Minister Taras Vysotskyi told Reuters that the new projection was the first official assessment of Ukraine’s export potential since attacks intensified in late July, effectively halting shipments through the Greater Odesa ports. Compared with the previous forecast, grain exports could therefore decline by 3–5 mln tons, or by up to 12%.

The situation remains critical for Ukraine’s agricultural exports, as more than 90% of the country’s grain exports are normally shipped through seaports. In recent weeks, Russia has attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports, export terminals and vessels entering or leaving the ports almost daily.

Reduced export capacity is also putting additional pressure on Ukraine’s grain storage infrastructure. According to the ministry, the accumulation of grain within the country could result in a storage capacity shortfall of up to 11 mln tons. The issue is particularly acute ahead of the arrival of the new corn and oilseed crops.

Restrictions on seaport operations also threaten significant financial losses for Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Vysotskyi previously estimated potential losses from the port blockade at around $3 bln. Ukraine is increasingly turning to alternative export routes, but their capacity remains insufficient to fully compensate for the loss of the Black Sea shipping corridor.

Tags: Ukraine, grain, wheat, ports, restrictions