Ukraine. Current European quotas will be enough for 2-3 months of exports

Ukraine and the European Commission have agreed to work out a decision on the further export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the European market during June-July 2025. This was announced by the First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotsky.

“Without dividing (the updated quotas for agricultural products, – ed.) for 2-3 months, those volumes in most areas will be enough for our agricultural sector. So in the short term, 2-3 months will definitely not have a negative impact (on the Ukrainian economy, – ed.). Therefore, we agreed that a new solution will be found in two months,” Vysotsky said.

At the same time, he admitted that if a solution is not found during this period, then in August-September the proposed quotas for agricultural products will begin to be exhausted according to the “7/12” principle – and agricultural exports to the EU will stop.

Vysotsky called the restrictions on such commodity items as sugar, poultry, honey, bioethanol, wheat, tomato paste, juices, powdered milk and butter “the most sensitive”.

“These are the products for which Ukraine objectively has an export potential greater than the 2021 quotas. If it is not possible to agree on an increase in volumes, then there may be a negative impact,” Vysotsky noted.

He added that one of the scenarios for the negotiations is currently dividing the restrictions into trade customs codes, which could be a kind of salvation for such goods as flour, pasta, etc., which fell under the same quota together with grain and could suffer significantly.

Vysotsky confirmed that the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food estimates the macroeconomic and global impact of the restrictions introduced by the EC at $3.5 billion, and recommended that farmers and traders actively seek alternative markets for the sale of agricultural products.

At the same time, he stated that the European Union market is more than 500 million consumers, for whom Ukraine currently has no special alternative. However, according to him, it is necessary to look more closely at the markets of Southeast Asia, India and China, which have a completely different logistical shoulder, certain restrictions and fundamentally different significant costs.

As reported, the EU decided not to extend the autonomous trade preferences for Ukraine introduced in 2022, known as “visa-free trade”.

After that, trade with Ukraine in the EU will take place according to pre-war rules. In particular, on May 22, the European Commission adopted a list of transitional measures regarding Ukrainian exports to the EU, which will come into force on June 6. They provide for the restoration of quotas for imports of Ukrainian goods this year in the amount of 7/12 of the usual annual volumes that were in force until 2022. At the same time, the European Commission promised to hold negotiations on amendments to the Agreement on the Establishment of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU, which may provide for a revision of quotas.

Tags: sugar, wheat, chicken, restrictions, eggs, Ukraine, corn, EU