Ukraine could under-export 24 mln tons of grain due to seaport blockade

Ukraine could fail to export around 24 mln tons of grain and lose more than $5 bln in potential export revenues if disruptions to Black Sea shipments persist until the end of the 2026/27 marketing year. This scenario was estimated by the analytical department of Forbes Ukraine.

Ukraine’s total grain export potential for the current season is estimated at around 50 mln tons, taking into account domestic consumption and carry-in stocks. Alternative routes could partially offset restrictions on seaborne exports, but their capacity would be insufficient to ship the entire available volume.

A significantly more favorable scenario assumes the resumption of seaborne exports during October. In this case, Ukraine would not be able to fully make up for lost time, but the potential export shortfall could decline from 24 mln tons to around 3 mln tons. This volume could potentially be carried over for export in the 2027/28 marketing year.

Problems with maritime logistics have already significantly affected shipment volumes. In August, Ukraine exported only 981 thsd tons of grain, 2.5 times less than a year earlier. Shipments included 605 thsd tons of wheat, 306 thsd tons of corn and 69 thsd tons of barley.

Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine has exported 3.726 mln tons of grains and pulses, down 7.2% from the same period last season. Wheat exports fell 34.3% to 1.6 mln tons and barley exports declined 34.5% to 368 thsd tons, while corn shipments nearly doubled to 1.62 mln tons.

Tags: grain export, Ukrainian ports, blocking ports, Ukraine, export, grain