Ukraine agri exports 2025: Logistics under risk pressure

UkrAgroConsult

In 2025, Ukraine’s agri exports operated under unprecedented logistics pressure, where security risks became a decisive factor alongside volumes and prices. Despite relatively strong shipments in December, annual exports fell sharply, highlighting how logistics constraints reshaped trade flows.

The article shows how repeated attacks on Big Odesa ports in the second half of 2025 reduced throughput efficiency, increased logistics costs, and shifted the key KPI from delivery speed to execution risk management. As a result, exporters increasingly prioritized reliability over nominal FOB prices.

Using transport and channel data, the analysis explains why deep-water ports regained dominance, while Danube ports and land routes lost share but remained critical as emergency corridors. These shifts define export capacity, costs, and pricing risks heading into 2026.

What This Article Covers

• Why Ukraine’s agri exports fell to 46 M mt in 2025
• How security risks reshaped logistics efficiency and costs
• The renewed dominance of Big Odesa ports
• The changing role of Danube ports and land corridors
• What logistics risks mean for export pricing in 2026

What the Charts Show

• Monthly agri exports by transport mode in 2025
• Shift in logistics channel shares between 2024 and 2025

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Tags: rail transportation, Ukraine, logistics, war, Danube ports