UkrAgroConsult: Ukrainian grain export, 2022/23, forecast

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

The Economy Ministry expects that the three Ukrainian ports will be able to handle up to 80 ships per month, and the Infrastructure Ministry has announced a plan for monthly grain exports at 5 M mt.

Monthly export data from 2018 to 2021 indicate the seasonality of the grain export. Theoretically, Ukrainian grain exports can be divided into 3 stages (waves):

1. Wheat-barley wave (July-August),
2. The first corn wave (September-October),
3. The second corn wave (February-March, when South American corn supply disappears from the global market).

MY 2022/23 will also be extraordinary with regard to monthly grain exports due to pressure of huge carryover stocks of 2021-crop grain and the 2022 crop supply. The export is unlikely to follow the above-mentioned stages, supposedly the market will see a gradual increase in shipments as the ports return to normal operation. The monthly volume could reach 5 M mt, but we expect a more realistic 3.5-4.5 M mt per month.

Shipping from the Odesa ports is still in the “trial period” now, market participants are still assessing prospects. UkrAgroConsult cannot yet confidently say that Ukraine will be able to fully realize its grain export potential. Substantial export growth in August – if it happens – would significantly increase the reliability of estimates of Ukraine’s export potential and real exports.

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Tags: grain, Economy ministry, crop, stocks, shipments, Market, ships, Ukrainian, wheat-barley wave, the first corn wave, the second corn wave