UK wheat harvest projected to come in at 11.7Mt

The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is projecting the 2024 UK wheat harvest to come in at 11.7Mt.

This is based on an envisaged, average yield of 7.5t/ha and a planted area of 1.56Mha.

The yield figure is based on actual results from this year’s harvest up to this point and is likely to change as more crops are cut.

The planted area figure is based on the results of a grower survey, carried out by AHFB staff earlier this year.

The actual planted area will be officially confirmed by the Department of Agriculture, Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DAERA) over the coming days.

Significantly, the 7.5t/ha, reported yield figure is down 7% on the five-year average for the UK.

On the basis that the actual planted area figure could come in at levels below the current AHDB projection, this could bring the verified wheat output in the UK this year down to 10.82Mt. This is based on a planted area of 1.44Mha.

With current area and yield estimates pointing to wheat production being in the range of 10.8 – 11.7 Mt, it’s likely domestic supplies will be well below the five-year average of 13.9Mt, and last season’s 14.0Mt crop.

In terms of what this means for the UK wheat supply and demand balance, heavy year-ending stocks are expected to offset some of the smaller crop, though imports will also need to be historically high in order to cover demand.

AHDB has reported that stocks of wheat held by merchants, ports and co-operatives in the UK at the end of June 2024, plus on-farm in England and Wales were sharply higher than a year earlier.

Combined they are also at their highest level since June 2016.

Meanwhile, Defra estimates on-farm stocks of own grown wheat in England and Wales at 1.166Mt at the end of June.

This is 35% higher than at the end of June 2023 and 89% above the five-year average.

The end of June marks the end of the 2023/24 marketing season. So, while data on on-farm stocks in Scotland and Northern Ireland is not available, this data suggests that notably higher wheat stocks are likely to be carried into the 2024/25 season.

This would be the case even if the on-farm stocks in England and Wales fell towards the lower end of the confidence interval.

Tags: harvest, UK, wheat, AHDB, yield, estimates, planted area, The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board