UK barley export potential to shrink sharply amid lower production

The UK is expected to face a significant reduction in domestic barley supplies in the MY 2026/27, substantially limiting its export potential. According to AHDB forecasts, the volume of barley available for export or free stocks will decline by 67%, from 1.016 mln tons last season to 336 thsd tons. The reduction will be driven by lower production amid unfavorable weather conditions and reduced planting areas.

UK barley production in 2026 is estimated at 5.5 mln tons, down 14% year-on-year and 21% below the five-year average. The main factors include a significant reduction in spring barley areas in England and Scotland, along with the negative impact of drought on yields in England. Total barley availability, including opening stocks and imports, is expected to decline by 10% to 7.09 mln tons.

Despite lower production, domestic barley consumption is expected to remain relatively stable at around 6 mln tons, just 1% below last year’s level. Meanwhile, barley use for animal feed is forecast to increase slightly to 4.39 mln tons. Summer drought conditions have left British farmers facing shortages of forage stocks, supporting demand for feed grains throughout the winter.

To partially offset the decline in domestic supplies, the UK is expected to increase barley imports by 17%, from 213 thsd tons to 250 thsd tons. This would be 52% above the five-year average. However, future import dynamics will depend on price relationships between different feed grains, particularly wheat and corn, as well as maritime freight costs.

The decline in the UK’s export potential could affect international barley trade flows, as a larger share of available supplies will be needed to meet domestic demand. According to AHDB estimates, the overall barley balance after domestic consumption is expected to fall by 40% to 1.09 mln tons. Final export volumes will depend on market conditions, domestic demand, and further changes in grain prices.

Tags: barley, UK, export