UGA increased its harvest forecast for 2023 by 1 million tons to 69 million tons of grains and oilseeds
The Ukrainian Grain Association has updated its estimate of the potential 2023 harvest by 1 million tons to 69 million tons of grains and oilseeds. In 2022, according to the UGA, the harvest reached 73.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds.
It is worth reminding that the smaller volume of the future harvest compared to previous seasons is due to the occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine, mining, hostilities, and lack of funds and other resources for farmers to carry out a full sowing campaign and grow crops. According to the UGA, a total of about 19.7 million hectares have been sown, compared to an average of 25 million hectares in previous years. Of course, much depends on further weather conditions, which have been favorable for grains and oilseeds so far.
Under these conditions, exports from Ukraine in the new season of 2023/2024 may amount to 44.8 mln tons. Last season (which ended on June 30, 2023), according to the UGA, exports reached 58 mln tonnes. Ukraine’s revenues from exports of grains, oilseeds and oils reached about $20 bln in the last marketing year.
At the same time, the carry-over stocks at the beginning of the new season amounted to almost 10 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds, which is 2.5 times more than in previous seasons, except for 2022/2023 MY, when the stocks were at their maximum – about 25 mln tonnes.
In general, the exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY can be expected at the mentioned level, if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to operate and alternative routes, in particular the Danube route, are actively developed. The world has already seen that exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that desperately need it.
Therefore, Ukraine is considering Plan B and plans to continue grain exports from Black Sea ports without a “grain deal” and actively develop the Danube route. The UGA is actively cooperating with the European Commission and the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine to increase the capacity of grain transshipment for export, in particular, the Danube Route.
As the UGA President recently noted at the UGA Grain Club, Plan B concerns both the Danube ports and additional financial instruments that will allow insuring vessels for those companies whose vessels will call at the ports of Greater Odesa and transport grain without a grain agreement. The development of the Danube Route through the creation of roadside transshipment in Romanian territorial waters for barges with Ukrainian grain from Danube ports, optimization of ship calls through the Bystryi Estuary and the Sulinsky Canal will increase grain transshipment in Danube ports from 2 to 4 million tons, which will increase the volume of export transshipment by 20 million tons per year.
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