UGA forecasts 18% growth in Ukrainian corn exports next season

Ukraine expects to increase corn exports next season as favorable weather conditions are likely to boost yields despite a fertilizer shortage caused by the conflict in Iran, Bloomberg reports.

According to Mykola Horbachov, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could reach 26 million tons, up 18% from the previous season.

A snowier winter helped improve soil moisture levels, which may support a corn harvest of 32.6 million tons — 4% higher than in the current season.

Ukraine is the world’s fourth-largest corn exporter. The optimistic outlook comes despite ongoing attacks on port infrastructure and soaring fertilizer and energy costs caused by disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Horbachov said Ukrainian farmers faced an estimated 20% fertilizer shortage this spring due to the conflict in the Middle East, but favorable weather conditions helped offset the negative impact.

“Favorable weather, even without enough fertilizers applied, can still produce a very good harvest,” he said during the GrainCom conference in Geneva.

Ukrainian exporters are also planning to expand shipments to Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey in order to offset quota restrictions imposed by the European Union last year, Horbachov added.

Wheat exports are expected to increase to 16 million tons from 14 million tons in the current season.

For comparison, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates Ukraine’s 2026/27 corn exports at 23 million tons, while wheat exports are projected at 13 million tons.

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, corn, export, wheat, UGA